Showing posts with label Economy-Business-Finance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economy-Business-Finance. Show all posts

Thursday, August 21, 2008

Migrants Flow out of Burma as Economic Woes Deepened


By LAWI WENG IRRAWADDY
Thursday, August 21, 2008

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Burma’s economic troubles have been a boon to human traffickers in recent months, keeping them busy at a time of year when wet conditions traditionally slow the flow of migrants across the border into Thailand.

A source who is involved in smuggling migrant workers from Burma to Thailand estimated that about 300 Burmese migrants are illegally transported to Bangkok each day from border areas such as Mae Sot, Three Pagodas Pass, Mae Sai and Ranong.

In an area called "Kamtieng" of Chiang Mai, Thailand, each morning several hundred labourers, mostly from Burma, gather in the hope of getting a days work. Pick-up trucks stop to recruit the workers they need. Most are employed in construction and gardening. (Photo: John Hulme)
The most popular crossing point is Mae Sot, which is separated from the neighboring Burmese town of Myawaddy by the Moei River. Burmese routinely cross the river, either over the Thai-Burma Friendship Bridge, which links the two towns, or on inflated inner tubes.

According to the source, who is based in Mae Sot, about 150 people are smuggled from Mae Sot to Bangkok every day.

Three Pagodas Pass, near the Thai town of Sangkhlaburi, is another major point of entry, with around 60 Burmese migrants leaving the area for Bangkok daily, according to local businessman Nai Lawi Mon.

Some local observers suggested that the steady influx was due to the impact of Cyclone Nargis, which slammed into Burma’s largely agricultural Irrawaddy delta on May 2-3, destroying cropland and leaving many farmers without any means of making a living.

“Normally, very few people come to Thailand during the rainy season,” said Nai Lawi Mon. “But this year we are seeing more and more people coming.”

Cyclone Nargis hit Burma at a time when inflation and unemployment were already at their highest levels in years, forcing a growing number of Burmese to flee to neighboring countries in search of work.

It is estimated that there are more than a million Burmese migrants living and working in Thailand, of whom around 500,000 are registered with the Thai Ministry of Labor.

The perils of their journey were highlighted in April, when 54 Burmese migrants suffocated to death while being transported in a container truck from Ranong, near the Burmese border town of Kawthaung, to the Thai resort island of Phuket.

Although the tragedy prompted officials to step up efforts to stem the tide of illegal migrants into Thailand, Burmese continue to make the trip in a desperate bid to find jobs to support themselves and their families.

Many end up in Mahachai, home to the highest concentration of Burmese migrant workers in Thailand. Located a short distance from Bangkok, Mahachai attracts thousands of Burmese with low-paying jobs in the fish processing industry that are shunned by most Thais.

Mi Wot arrived in Mahachai a week ago and is still looking for work. She said she paid 460,000 kyat (US $383) for the trip. She made the journey, her first into Thailand, with ten other people, hiding in the back of a truck under a tarpaulin for three nights. The trip took so long, she explained, because of the numerous checkpoints along the way.

While Thai efforts seem to be doing little to prevent illegal migration into the country, the Burmese authorities have been carrying out a crackdown on their side of the border that appears to be having some effect, at least for now.

According to Maung Tu, a local businessman in Kawthaung, the human traffic into the neighboring Thai province of Ranong has slowed perceptibly in recent weeks.

Normally, several hundred people cross into Thailand each day; at the moment, the flow has been reduced to a trickle of around 30-50 people a day, according to sources in the area. Similar numbers have been reported in Mae Sai, near the Burmese town of Tachilek.

Meanwhile, the cost of smuggling migrants from Mae Sot to Bangkok has increased by about 2,000 Baht ($58) recently. It now costs 14,000 Baht ($412) make the trip to the Thai capital, sources said.

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Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Thailand Inflation at 10-year high

May rate of 7.6 per cent forces BOT to revise its forecasts

BANGKOK: -- Thailand's inflation rate soared to 7.6 per cent in May, the highest in nearly a decade, due to the unrelenting rise of oil prices.

According to the Commerce Ministry, May inflation was the highest since August 1998, prompting the Bank of Thailand to announce it would revise its economic growth and inflation rate forecast for the year.


"The BOT will revise its forecast of economic indicators again as oil prices now have already surged higher than the worst-case scenario," BOT senior director Amara Sriphayak said.

The central bank forecast for GDP growth in 2008 is currently 4.8 to 6 per cent. The central bank also forecast headline and core inflation for this year at 4-5 per cent, and 1.5-2.5 per cent, respectively.

Amara said the inflation rate is a cause for concern as oil prices are rising continually. Currently, however, the central bank considers an equal risk between growth and inflation.

"Higher inflation and the rising cost of living because of oil prices makes people more cautious about spending money," Bloomberg quoted Kasikornbank president Prasarn Trairatvorakul as saying.

Consumer confidence, which fell for the first time in six months in April, may decline further in coming months as oil prices increase, said Thanavath Phonvichai, an economist at the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce.

According to Bloomberg, Indonesia's consumer prices rose 10.4 per cent in May from a year ago, while India's inflation has accelerated to its fastest pace in more than three and a half years.

The Thai government also asked four refineries controlled by state-owned PTT to cut diesel prices for six months to ease inflation.

"The ministry will look at all products to see what we can do to reduce the public's burden," Bloomberg quoted Commerce Ministry permanent secretary Siripol Yodmuangcharoen as saying.

The inflation rate in Thailand, Southeast Asia's second-largest economy, may be as high as 5.8 per cent this year, up from 2.3 per cent in 2007.

Read More......

Monday, May 19, 2008

Stock investment, with safety

By Siriporn Chanjindamanee The Nation Published on May 20, 2008

While there has been plenty of advice to investors lately that they should put their money into stocks to beat inflation, it perhaps should be pointed out that making a profit from the equity market is easier said than done.


The Thai equity market has been volatile because of both local and external factors, and these have affected the market in both negative and positive ways.

Investors need to reduce these risks by allocating their investment portfolio to suit the current situation. However, while investment in blue-chip stocks with strong fundamentals may be a good buffer, it does not always guarantee capital gains. Despite dividend payments, there are some cases in which sluggish stock sentiment means the returns do not justify the investment.

Many stockbrokers advise their clients to invest in accordance with certain portfolio models, in order to ride volatility successfully. For those who want to invest on their own without advice from brokers, one expert recommends a model called "Smart" investment. In his use of the word "smart", S is for stock selection, M for market timing, A for Asset Allocation, R for Risk Management and T for Tax Planning.

The idea came from Thanachart Securities executive vice president Pichai Lertsupongkit, who said market timing and asset allocation were the most important aspects but that the timing for selling or buying stock was the most difficult thing. This is because the most suitable time for buying or selling equities can never be predicted.

Asset allocation helps balance an overall investment portfolio, because investment in different sectors and different stocks brings about different results.

Pichai recommends that an overall portfolio consist of big-capitalisation stocks, small-capitalisation stocks and "trading stocks" - stocks in which you have invested for the short term - in a proportion of 30 per cent, 25 per cent and 20 per cent, respectively. The remaining 25 per cent should be invested in a retirement mutual fund, long-term equity fund or insurance policy, in order to benefit from tax privileges.

For example, if you have Bt500,000 to invest, you should allocate 25 per cent of it, or Bt125,000, for retirement mutual funds or long-term equity funds, to reduce your risk and to receive the tax benefits.

Then you should allocate Bt150,000, or 30 per cent, for investment in big-cap stocks. Many big-cap stocks are growth stocks, including oil, banking and commodity companies. Choose the best stocks from each group, with a dividend yield of at least 5 per cent.

Another 25 per cent, or Bt125,000, should be invested in small-cap stocks. Most of these are usually shrugged off by investors, who believe smaller stocks are riskier. But in fact, these small stocks have positive growth and offer high dividend payments.

When setting out to choose small-cap stocks, investors should first ensure that the companies are expected to show a profit over the next two or three years. Pichai gives the green light to small stocks that have annual profit growth of about 20 per cent, with undervalued stocks and expectations of dividend payment.

The final 20 per cent of the portfolio, or Bt100,000, should be allocated to trading stocks that give an investor flexibility by allowing profit-taking from capital gains in the short term. Without such speculative trading, overall returns may not reach the target, because it is recommended that 80 per cent of the portfolio be invested for the medium and long term.

Pichai says interesting stocks in the Market for Alternative Investment include Thai Plastic, Unique Mining Services (UMS), Unimit Engineering (UEC) and Inoue Rubber (Thailand) (IRC).

Thai Plastic produces packaging, including plastic bottles and caps, as well as other plastic products and has annual profit growth of about 20 per cent, with a dividend yield of 8.3 per cent per annum.

UMS imports coal. It makes a yearly dividend payment of about 7 per cent and has profit growth of more than 10 per cent a year.

UEC provides engineering design and production services and installs equipment for manufacturers. It offers a dividend payment of 6 per cent a year and has average profit growth of 20 per cent.

IRC pays a 4-per-cent dividend per year, while last year's net profit grew 69 per cent from 2006.

Although you may find several stocks interesting, it is recommended that you not buy more than 10 at a time, because you will not have time to follow the movements of more than that. It is also recommended that you follow the performance of your companies each quarter, in order to ensure that they are meeting their targets. If anything goes wrong with any stock, you will then have time to divest it.

If you follow this "Smart" investment model, you can expect to be safe from risks and enjoy satisfactory returns.

Read More......

Friday, May 16, 2008

Thais invited to help build deep-sea port at Tavoy Burma

Bangkokpost 6/05/2008
Burma has invited Thai investors to help develop a deep-sea port in Tavoy to open trade and investment links with western Thailand.
The invitation was made by Burmese Prime Minister Gen Thein Sein during his talks with Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej, said Transport Minister Santi Prompat.
During his recent official visit to Thailand, the Burmese prime minister said Burma would set aside about 100,000 rai of land near the planned Tavoy deep-sea port to be developed as an industrial zone to accommodate energy-related industries such as petrochemicals and refineries.

Mr Santi said construction of the deep-sea port in Tavoy would cost about 40-50 billion baht, while at least another 100 billion baht would be needed for developing the industrial zone.

PTT Plc, Thailand's oil giant, has shown an interest in setting up an oil refinery in Burma, where natural gas reserves were abundant, said Mr Santi.

If the refinery was built there, PTT could supply refined oil products to Thailand through pipelines.

India and other countries were also interested in investing in the Tavoy deep-sea port project.

Mr Santi said the area earmarked for the deep-sea port was close to many provinces in Thailand including Kanchanaburi, Phetchaburi and Suphan Buri.

The government was ready to support both Thai and foreign investors in setting up industries in those provinces, Mr Santi said.

He admitted that investments in Thailand were slow due to red-tape and other obstacles, including protests by activists, which also drove away foreign investors.

Commenting on progress on the planned Pak Bara deep sea-port project in Satun province, Mr Santi said Dubai has unconditionally offered 10 million baht to the ministry's Office of the Transport and Traffic Policy and Planning to conduct a feasibility study of the project on the Andaman Sea.

Dubai has expressed interest in the project, said Mr Santi, adding that investors from Dubai and other countries would be invited to join the bidding.

Meanwhile, a group of activists said they would check whether the Phu Nam Ron forest in Kanchanaburi province would be affected if a road linking Thailand with the Tavoy deep-sea port project was built through the forest.

Kanchanaburi conservation group president Pinan Chotiroseranee said in principle her group had no objection to the Tavoy deep-sea port project as it was built in Burma.

However, the activists would check whether the planned expansion of the Yetakun-Tavoy road near the border in Kanchanaburi would cut through the forest.

She denied that protests by activists had affected industrial growth, saying the activists would not oppose development projects if they were necessary and beneficial to the country.
__________________
Tourism Thailand

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Thursday, May 8, 2008

Nargis Cyclone Hits Myanmar Aquaculture Industry

MYANMAR - The recent cyclone in Myanmar (Burma) is expected to severely hit the country's agriculture and aquaculture industries.

The five states that have been affected own 80 per cent of the country's fish aquaculture ponds and 26 per cent of the shrimp aquaculture ponds. Fish and shrimps might have escaped from the ponds if flooded by water.

The five states also produce 65 per cent of the country's rice, and have about 50 per cent of all irrigated areas. There is risk that stored rice seeds kept by farmers - usually under poor storage facilities - might be affected by the cyclone.

Some rice crops under irrigation might be affected if not yet harvested.

Rubber plantations in five affected states cover 20 per cent of national total. However, most rubber trees are relatively young and might also be affected by the cyclone.

The five affected states are famous for livestock production - having roughly 50 per cent of national poultry production and 40 per cent of pig production. FAO also expects problems for small scale livestock holders to treat injured/sick animals or feed surviving animals.

FAO/WFP is to carry out joint assessments of food needs, damage and needs assessment in the agricultural, livestock and fisheries sectors as well as looking at livelihoods and natural resource issues in the most affected areas.

UN clusters are leading the action, and the UN - including FAO - is examining the need for a flash appeal, Relief Web said.

Together with the government, UN partners and donors, FAO is ready to undertake on the spot detailed damage assessment – and formulate measures to protect farmers from further losses and provided immediate support to recover rural livelihoods.

Ref : TheFishSite News Desk

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Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Trade clampdown reported at Mae Sot border bridge

Irrawaddy - Saw Yan Naing : Burmese authorities at the Thai-Burmese border Friendship Bridge in Thailand’s Tak Province are reportedly restricting the volume of goods crossing into Thailand.Goods traffic across the bridge, leading from Myawaddy to the Thai border town of Mae Sot, has dropped from about 300 trucks daily to around 100.

Among commodities affected by the drop in trade are rice, fresh produce and canned goods, according to one resident with contacts with local merchants.

No official reason for the restriction has been given, but it has been suggested that the Burmese authorities want to maintain supplies of essential goods available in Burma. It has also been suggested that the restriction is connected with changes in Burmese officials manning the border post.

The Thai-Burma Friendship Bridge is open daily from 6:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. Some goods bypass the bridge and enter Thailand illegally across the river separating Myawaddy and Mae Sot.

Trade at Northern Thailand’s other border crossing, the bridge connecting Tachilek and Mae Sai, is normal, according to local residents. Burmese authorities are enforcing existing weight restrictions, however.

Trade at the Chinese-Burmese border is also operating as usual, a local merchant reported.

Read More......

What Do Venture Capitalists Know?

What Do Venture Capitalists Know? via TechCrunch by Erick Schonfeld on 12/18/07

The National Venture Capital Association surveyed 170 of its members, and this is their collective wisdom for 2008:

The sectors VCs are most bullish about are Clean Tech, Media, Biotech, and the Internet, in that order:

nvca-growth.png

Those also happen to be the sectors they think will become the most overvalued:

nvca-overvalued.png

Will that stop them from investing? Nah. VCs are particularly optimistic about their own abilities to deliver superior returns:

nvca-vc-returns.png

. . . even though more than half think the overall economy is headed for a downturn:

nvca-economy.png

Not to mention that the five-year rate of return for all VC funds, as measured by the NVCA, is 3 percent, which is less than that of the S&P 500.

What else do VCs know?

—On average, they think they will invest $27 billion in startups next year.

—They are bearish on semiconductors and software. A full 59 percent believe that the IPO market will continue to recover.

—More than half (55 percent) expect M&A deals to increase in volume, but only about a third (35 percent) expect those deals to increase in value.

—An overwhelming 84 percent believe that new VC funds will raise the same amount of money or more than current funds, while 59 percent expect the number of VC firms to decrease. So more money will go to fewer firms, essentially.

—And 39 percent think that Hillary Clinton will be elected president, nearly twice as many as those who predict Guiliani will win:

nvca-pres.png

Ah, conventional wisdom.

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Saturday, November 24, 2007

Stock Trading - Technical Analysis : Assist with Entry Point

Technical analysis can help with timing a proper entry point. Some analysts use fundamental analysis to decide what to buy and technical analysis to decide when to buy. It is no secret that timing can play an important role in performance. Technical analysis can help spot demand (support) and supply (resistance) levels as well as breakouts. Simply waiting for a breakout above resistance or buying near support levels can improve returns.

It is also important to know a stock's price history. If a stock you thought was great for the last 2 years has traded flat for those two years, it would appear that Wall Street has a different opinion. If a stock has already advanced significantly, it may be prudent to wait for a pullback. Or, if the stock is trending lower, it might pay to wait for buying interest and a trend reversal.

Ref: Stockcharts

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Friday, November 23, 2007

Stock Analysis - Technical over Fundamentals

"What" is More Important than "Why"
In his book, The Psychology of Technical Analysis, Tony Plummer paraphrases Oscar Wilde by stating, "A technical analyst knows the price of everything, but the value of nothing". Technicians, as technical analysts are called, are only concerned with two things:
1. What is the current price?
2. What is the history of the price movement?

The price is the end result of the battle between the forces of supply and demand for the company's stock. The objective of analysis is to forecast the direction of the future price. By focusing on price and only price, technical analysis represents a direct approach. Fundamentalists are concerned with why the price is what it is. For technicians, the why portion of the equation is too broad and many times the fundamental reasons given are highly suspect. Technicians believe it is best to concentrate on what and never mind why. Why did the price go up? It is simple, more buyers (demand) than sellers (supply). After all, the value of any asset is only what someone is willing to pay for it. Who needs to know why?.

Furthering the bias argument is the fact that technical analysis is open to interpretation. Even though there are standards, many times two technicians will look at the same chart and paint two different scenarios or see different patterns. Both will be able to come up with logical support and resistance levels as well as key breaks to justify their position. While this can be frustrating, it should be pointed out that technical analysis is more like an art than a science, somewhat like economics. Is the cup half-empty or half-full? It is in the eye of the beholder.

Conclusions
Technical analysts consider the market to be 80% psychological and 20% logical. Fundamental analysts consider the market to be 20% psychological and 80% logical. Psychological or logical may be open for debate, but there is no questioning the current price of a security. After all, it is available for all to see and nobody doubts its legitimacy. The price set by the market reflects the sum knowledge of all participants, and we are not dealing with lightweights here. These participants have considered (discounted) everything under the sun and settled on a price to buy or sell. These are the forces of supply and demand at work. By examining price action to determine which force is prevailing, technical analysis focuses directly on the bottom line: What is the price? Where has it been? Where is it going?

Even though there are some universal principles and rules that can be applied, it must be remembered that technical analysis is more an art form than a science. As an art form, it is subject to interpretation. However, it is also flexible in its approach and each investor should use only that which suits his or her style. Developing a style takes time, effort and dedication, but the rewards can be significant.

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Thursday, November 15, 2007

Investors avoiding Thailand: report

The International Business Report 2007, conducted by Grant Thornton International, has shown that Thailand has gone through a period of slowing growth this year and is losing investment opportunities to Vietnam and Malaysia due mainly to political turmoil and uncertain economic policy.
The Nation: November 15, 2007

Peter Walker, partner of Grant Thornton Thailand, said the survey explored the views of 7,200 business leaders including chief executive officers, managing directors and business-owners in 32 countries which represent 81 per cent of global gross domestic product.

Walker said the survey showed that 30 per cent of Thai business people expressed low confidence in their country's economic prospects compared to the East Asian average of 54 per cent. Political turmoil and policy concerns were the main factors to depress Thai business optimism.

He added that the result of the political chaos affecting business was shown by the slowdown of capital investment because Thai business people had decided to wait for certain economic policy after the election. Moreover, exporters suffered from the appreciation of the baht, which decreased export volume this year.

"Many Thai business persons are adopting a wait-and-see strategy. They hope that business figures will be improved by the outcome of the forthcoming election and the new government's policy actions," Walker said.

From the Grant Thornton International Super Growth Index, Walker said the US was top for the third year running, while Thailand slipped from 18th place to 30th. Nine per cent of Thai companies were classified as Super Growth companies in 2006 but in 2007 only 5 per cent fell into this category. The percentage of Thai companies in the Normal Growth category also dropped from 45 per cent to 25 per cent.

Hong Kong and India have fallen significantly in the number of Super Growth companies, while the Philippines and Russia have both increased considerably.

Walker said the survey also indicated that two constraints for business expansion in Thailand were reduced demand and weak labour skills. The most skill shortages are in IT, finance and customer management.

"Compared with international levels, Thai companies suffer more than others from the loss of skilled workers with a negative impact of 74 per cent," he said.

Walker said other weak points for Thai business were a lack of energy-cost management and lack of attention to risk management. The survey showed that only 37 per cent of Thai companies had assigned senior managers to oversee corporate risk. However, Thai businesses reported they were good at corporate governance.

"If Thai companies do not pay enough attention in risk management, it will be quite a problem for them in the long term," Walker said.

Walker also said most Thai business leaders expressed concerns over China's advantage in low-cost manufacturing, which has a negative impact for companies here.

He said the government should play a leadership role in making clear economic policy and start fundamental economic strengthening. If the policy is clear, foreign investors will have the confidence to inject money into Thailand.

"In the short term, Thailand has lost investment opportunities to Vietnam and Malaysia due mainly to its uncertain investment policy. However, in the long-term, I still believe that Thailand shows a bright outlook and could return to be the most attractive country among foreign business persons, thanks to its strong infrastructure," Walker said.

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Friday, November 2, 2007

น้ำมัน ทองคำ และค่าเงิน

บทบรรณาธิการ - น้ำมัน ทองคำ และค่าเงิน
ราคาสินค้าสำคัญๆ ในตลาดโลกในขณะนี้ กำลังทำสถิติสูงสุดกันเป็นว่าเล่น ไม่ว่าจะเป็นน้ำมัน หรือทองคำ ซึ่งเดินหน้าต่อเนื่อง หลังจากธนาคารกลางสหรัฐ (เฟด) ลดอัตราดอกเบี้ย โดยราคาน้ำมันดิบไนเมกซ์ในตลาดสิงคโปร์ ทะลุระดับ 96 ดอลลาร์ต่อบาร์เรล เป็นครั้งแรกเมื่อวานนี้ หลังจากพุ่งขึ้น 4.15% เมื่อวันก่อน

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Monday, October 29, 2007

Thai employees are likely to see an average salary increase

Average salary hike put at 6.3%
Thai employees are likely to see an average salary increase of 6.3% at the end of this year. Salary increases are expected to range from 6.2% to 6.7%, while the average fixed bonus will be one month, according to the international human resources firm Hewitt Associates.

Ref: SOMPORN THAPANACHAI - Bangkok Post

The company projected a 6.4% average salary increase for the end of next year, with the range of 6.4% to 6.7% depending on employee level, and a fixed bonus of one month's salary.

Hewitt based its findings on data collected from 166 organisations in Thailand between July and October.

According to Kulshaan Singh of Hewitt in Singapore, employees in business and computer services would receive the highest raises of 7.4%.

The lowest increase this year would be 4.8% among manufacturers of computers and related products.

The hospitality and restaurant businesses also ranked low in the survey.

Other sectors with high forecast increases include consumer products (non-durable goods) at 7.2%, other manufacturing activities (7.1%), automotive (6.9%), pharmaceuticals (6.6%) and energy/oil (6.3%).

The lower range includes food and beverages (6.0%), other services (5.9%), chemicals (5.8%), electronics/electrical goods (5.8%), banking and finance (5.8%), consumer products (durable goods) at 5.7% and telecommunication (5.7%).

He said the average increase for junior management, supervisory and professional workers would be 6.7% while senior management would receive about 6.2%.

Mr Singh said the survey showed that 56.3% of respondents provided fixed bonuses for their employees while 52% also offered long-term incentives for employees.

Bubphawadee Owararinth, business development director of Watson Wyatt (Thailand) Ltd, said the company's strategic reward research showed that countries in the Asia Pacific where salary increases would average below 5% were Australia, Japan and Taiwan.

Raises in Hong Kong, Malaysia, South Korea and Thailand would be in the range of 5% to 10%.

Countries with increases above the 10% level are India, Indonesia and the Philippines.

She said the increases would be performance-based. The research reveals that employers are paying more attention to designing reward programmes by considering issues of learning and training programmes, quality work environment, rotational assignments and cash incentives respectively.

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Sunday, October 28, 2007

Instant Noodle, becoming Thai Basic Commodity?



It has been for times that Instant Noodle Companies, particularly Ma Ma, tried to get an approval from Internal Trade Department of Thailand to raise their noodle prices, about 1B, since the world oil prices has climbing up later quarters of this year. According to Mama, their production costs rise up tallying with oil price, and so other basic commodities and start rising up inflation.

Thai authority had already allowed some basic commodities items to high up such as Pork, et.., but not "Instant Noodle". The authority persuade MaMa to wait until the next new year to rise up their prices. The authority said that "Instant Noodle" is included in some over 200 commodity items that they are watching closely up.

ျမန္မာျပည္မွာေရာ အသင့္စားေခါက္ဆြဲ၊ငါးေသတၲာ ေတြက ျပည္သူေတြရဲ႔စားသုံးမွီခုိမႈအခ်ဳိး ဘယ္ေလာက္႐ွိေနျပီလဲ မသိဘူး။ ထူးေပမယ့္ မဆန္းတဲ့အရာပါ။ အထူးသျဖင့္ျမန္မာျပည္ရဲ႔ ေဝးလံျပီးကုန္စည္ပုိ႔ေဆာင္ေရးခက္ခဲတဲ့ေဒသေတြမွာေပါ့။

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Thursday, October 18, 2007

Global hike likely to lift retail price of diesel

Bangchak expects move this week
The retail price of diesel is likely to increase this week due to the continued spike
in global oil prices, which will deplete retailers' market-ing margins,
a Bangchak Petroleum executive said yesterday.
The prediction came amid the surprise adjustment in oil futures in New York on Tuesday,
when the price of crude for November delivery reached a record high of US$88.20 (Bt3,043) a barrel,
before closing at $87.61. Dubai crude touched $78.34.

REF: FUEL COSTS Published on October 18, 2007 Business Reporters The Nation

Though oil futures retreated slightly to $87.42 by noon yesterday in Europe in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the high level indicates a possible increase in retail oil prices, which would make it unavoidable for manufacturers and service providers to raise their prices.

Vichien Usanachote, senior executive vice president of Bangchak, said that as finished diesel had climbed $2.18 in a single day to $96.04 a barrel on Tuesday, PTT - the largest oil retailer - would be unable to delay the retail price increase.

"It is likely that global oil prices could touch $100 a barrel some time, due to unrest in several areas like Turkey and Iraq," he said.

However, PTT senior executive vice president Chaiwat Chooritti said yesterday that the company would put on hold another increase in retail diesel prices, fearing that an increase this week would further disturb consumers who are suffering from higher product prices.

He said if global oil prices kept escalating this week, the company could consider raising retail prices next week.

"While fluctuations in oil prices attract hedge funds, all parties now hope that the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries will increase output at its November meeting to ease the price situation," he said.

Also yesterday, ferry and boat-service operators along the Chao Phya River failed to win the Marine Department's permission to lift fares, though private bus operators raised their fares on Monday and truck operators will raise their freight rates on November 1.

Marine Department director-general Prasong Tanmaneewatana said the agency would review the fares once diesel climbs further. Right now, the boat operators are recommended to adjust their frequency and switch to

Natural Gas for Vehicles (NGV) to generate more revenue and save fuel costs.

"NGV can reduce fuel costs by 30 per cent," he said.
At the time of the last increase in August 2005, it was agreed that basic boat fares would be maintained at Bt2-Bt3, as long as the average diesel cost was Bt21-Bt25 per litre. The department said that during the first 10 months of this year, the average diesel price was Bt25.04 and that had prompted it to delay the increase.

Energy Minister Piyasvasti Amranand said yesterday that the government would never intervene in domestic retail oil prices except in emergencies, such as war in the Middle East.

He said intervention would cause a long-term debt burden to the Oil Fund, which is due to be free of all debts - incurred from intervention during the Thaksin Shinawatra government - at the end of the year.

Piyasvasti also calmed the market worries on oil prices, saying that the volatility is due to tight supplies. Even though the world price could hit $100, it would only be for a short period, he said.

"The average crude-oil price still stands at $60 a barrel," he said. "The retail diesel price is still lower than last year's peak of Bt29.75 per litre. The average price in the first nine months of Bt24.73 is also lower than last year's average of Bt25.62."

He also advised consumers to switch to NGV, for which the price would be maintained at Bt8.50 per kilogram until the end of next year.

PTT now targets to have 50,000 NGV-fuelled taxis at the end of the year, from 16,000 at present, under a Bt2-billion programme. It also hopes to have 220 NGV stations by the end of the year.

Piyasvasti said oil prices were not the only factor driving up transport costs and product prices. Inflation can be blamed on many factors, including seasonal increases in food prices.

Oil prices retreated yesterday in Asia to $87.12 a barrel amid expectations a fuel report due later in the day would show that US crude and petrol stocks rose last week.

Prices remained supported by concerns that a Turkish incursion into Iraq in search of Kurdish rebels could disrupt crude supplies.

Turkey's parliament was expected yesterday to agree that the government could launch a cross-border attack into Iraq sometime over the next year. An incursion would threaten the pipeline that runs from Kirkuk in Iraq to the Turkish export terminal of Ceyhan.

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Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Foreign direct investment in Asia continues to rise

UNCTAD REPORT Published on October 17, 2007

Inflows to Thailand increase 9% to reach record US$10 billion

Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to South, East and Southeast Asia maintained their upward trend last year, rising by 19 per cent to reach a new high of US$200 billion (Bt6.83 trillion), according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad) annual report on global investment trends.

South and Southeast Asia saw a sustainable increase in FDI flows, while growth in East Asia was slower. However, FDI in East Asia is shifting towards more knowledge-intensive and high value-added activities, Unctad economist Kee Swee Wee said yesterday

China and Hong Kong retained their positions as the largest FDI recipients in the region, followed by Singapore and India, according to the World Investment Report 2007.

Inflows to China fell 4 per cent to $69 billion last year, dropping for the first time in seven years due mainly to declining investments in financial services.

Hong Kong attracted FDI of $43 billion, Singapore $24 billion and India $17 billion, which was equivalent to India's preceding three years of inflows.

Meanwhile, FDI inflows to Thailand rose by 9 per cent in 2006, reaching a record of $10 billion and consolidating the country's position as the second-largest FDI recipient in Southeast Asia.

The acquisition of Shin Corp by Singapore's Temasek Holdings accounted for a large part of the Kingdom's FDI inflows.

FDI in the service sector in the region was considerably increased but FDI related to mergers and acquisitions in manufacturing dropped.

The report predicts that rapid economic growth in this region should continue attracting FDI to their countries in the coming year.

In the first half of this year, the value of cross-border merger and acquisition deals in the region rose nearly 20 per cent on year. FDI outflows from the region are also expected to increase.

The report also showed that rising demand for oil and gas and metals, particularly from Asia, has spurred an FDI boom in mineral exploration and extraction industries.

Those industries account largely for the recent increases in FDI in many mineral-rich developing countries, notably in Africa.

The boom has also triggered a series of cross-border mega-mergers in these industries, resulting in higher market concentration, said Masato Abe, an economic affairs officer with the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific.

The report shows that the relative importance of transnational corporations (TNCs) varies between different extractive industries. In metal mining, 23 of the top 25 producers in 2005 were privately owned TNCs, whereas only two were majority-owned by the state.

In oil and gas, the majority of the top 50 producers were majority state-owned. Mostly such production was controlled by state-owned companies from developing and transition economies. For example, in 2005, the production of Saudi Arabia was more than twice that of the world's largest privately owned oil and gas producer, ExxonMobil.

Investment in extractive industries makes up the bulk of inward FDI in low-income countries. Due to small domestic markets and weak production capabilities, these countries tend to have few other industries to attract significant FDI.

Therefore, a large share of their national incomes is generated by revenues from mineral exploitation and exports. Unctad argues that the commodities boom should provide





opportunities for development and poverty alleviation in mineral-exporting countries. But considerable efforts to address the economic, environmental, social and political issues relating to mineral extraction are necessary for harnessing the earnings from extractive industries to boost development.

TNCs can influence the outcome. They may contribute capital, technology and management skills, and when domestic capabilities are lacking, such an approach is often the most viable option for exploiting natural resources.

In South, East and Southeast Asia, the value of cross-border mergers and acquisitions in extractive industries rose nearly fivefold to $1.7 billion.

Chalida Ekvitthayavechnukul

The Nation

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Wednesday, October 3, 2007

Thai investment in Burma affected

BURMA Ref : The Nation
Violence in Burma has affected Thai investment in the country which stretches from tourism, fishery to manufacturing sector, said Kasikorn Research Centre.

To date, accumulated Thai investment in the hotel and tourism sector in Burma total US$228.6 million. Thai manufacturing business in the country totals $614.6 million. Fishing investment value reaches $171 million while agricultural investment tops $2.7 million.

But topping this is the $6.03 billion investment in hydropower project in Salween, approved by the Burmese government in March 2006. Totally, since 1988 when the country opened its doors for foreign investment, Thailand's investment in Burma has risen to $7.38 billion. According to the centre, Thailand is ranked the largest foreign investor in Burma. Among Asean countries, aside from Thailand, Burma also welcomed huge investment from Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia.

K Research said that if violence continues, Burma could face international economic bans particularly from the US and European Union as well as Japan.

"This could affect Thai investment projects in the country," the centre concedes.

The centre noted that if the violence does not worsen to the level that Burma closes its border, BurmeseThai border trade would remain slow only in the short term. Throughout this year, the border trade is expected to be worth Bt109 billion, or a 5 per cent annualised growth from Bt104 billion last year. This is attributable to the imports of natural gas from Burma, as well as the exports of steel, chemical products, and plastic pellets.

"However, if the situation turns more violent and the borders are shut down, the border trade in the remaining three months could drop," it said.

On the monthly basis, the border trade is valued around Bt9 billion, with Thailand's exports worth Bt1.65 billion and Burma's exports worth Bt7.5 billion.

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Sunday, September 23, 2007

Gold Value with Crude Oil Price Correlations

For those who might wish to collect their rich as quick reserve asset as a form of "Gold", you may have a rough idea how the gold value will be swung depends on the world main consumer commodity, "Oil".
But be noted that "Gold price usually "Lead" Oil price generally about some several months".

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Thursday, August 16, 2007

Top five reasons to buy Thai stocks


By BRIAN HOEGEE - Bangkok Post

These are just five of many reasons why Thailand is an attractive market at current levels. On the flip side, if global institutional exposure to sub-prime mortgages is the main reason for recent market volatility; wouldn't it make sense to invest in countries that have sold off sharply yet have little or no exposure to sub-prime mortgages?

All you have to do is turn on the TV or read the newspaper and you will hear nothing but negative news relating to sub-prime mortgages in the States, central banks intervening and volatility that has been unmatched in recent years. No stock, currency, debt or commodity market has been spared the mayhem; some have thrown in the towel, others have chosen to stay on the sidelines due to the tremendous volatility even if there is money to be made.

The Dow Jones hit a high on July 17 while the SET Index hit a cyclical high only nine days later. From mid-July to the recent August lows, the SET Index corrected by more than 11% and the Dow is off more than 6%. Investor psychology has gone from euphoria and greed to panic and fear thinking that the worst is yet to come. Volatility will most likely continue and in times of doubt, disbelief and exhaustion, such as now, investors should look to move back into the Thai market. Here are five reasons why:

F1. Political Situation: Using logical reasoning, one can come to the conclusion that the constitutional referendum this Sunday should pass and elections should go smoothly before the end of the year. It is somewhat of a risk using the words "logic" and "reason" in the same sentence when mentioning Thai politics. However, the powers that be clearly realise that if the elections do not go smoothly, the economic picture will worsen to levels not seen since the Asian financial crisis. If this criterion is not met, then all bets are off.

F2. Technical Overview: It is clear that the SET Index has broken out of its long term down trend. The breakout occurred in June at the 780 level. This level will act as a huge support against any potential downside movements that may take place in the ensuing days or weeks. For those who follow Fibonacci levels, it just so happens that the 38% retracement (December low of 587 to July high of 895) lies at 778 also. Both the RSI and Stochastic are also at increasingly attractive levels.

F3. Interest Rates: Common sense leads us to believe that when interest rates are low, equities perform well and when interest rates are high, equities perform poorly. Most investors become extremely wary of equities in a rising interest-rate environment. However, rising interest rates can actually be a catalyst for rising stock prices. Interest rates are raised to prevent the economy from overheating and leading to increases in inflation.

An overheated economy is generally a good thing for most companies as earnings are robust and the consumer is spending. The Bank of Thailand may lower rates once more this year and subsequently earnings and the overall economy will rebound going into 2008. As growth kicks in, the central bank will most likely begin to raise rates sometime in 2008 to cool the economy. Contrary to popular belief, stock prices should rise in conjunction with rising rates.

F4. Inflation: One of the main reasons the central bank did not lower interest rates earlier in the year was due to rising inflation. Due to the economic and political issues over the past 12 months, inflation has stabilised and is now hovering at 1.7%. This is a comfortable level and inflation should continue to be tame over the next 12-18 months.

F5. Earnings: Earnings growth has slowed dramatically over the past 12 months due mainly to lacklustre consumer confidence and the political mess. The price/earnings ratio for the SET50 Index is currently at 12.4 and most analysts put the 2008 P/E for the SET50 at 10.5. As central bank interest rate cuts start to filter through and benefit the economy, the consumer will return and corporate earnings will begin to improve in the fourth quarter of 2007.
=================
Brian Hoegee is Managing Director, Asia, of Global Trader, a leading London-based derivatives provider registered with the Thai SEC. Contact him in Bangkok at 0-2654-1212 or visit http://www.gt247.com

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Friday, July 13, 2007

ลงทุนช่วงดอกเบี้ยขาขึ้น

Wednesday, 23 May 2007

ยิ่งระยะเวลาของตราสารหนี้ยิ่งสั้นก็มีความเสี่ยงน้อยลง เนื่องจากเราสามารถเปลี่ยนไปลงทุนใหม่ตามอัตราดอกเบี้ยที่เพิ่มขึ้นได้เร็วๆ หรือถ้าจะมองอีกมุมหนึ่ง ก็เหมือนกับว่าเราลอยตัวไปอัตราดอกเบี้ยแทนที่จะไปติดกับอัตราดอกเบี้ยเดิมเป็นเวลานานๆ

ในช่วงที่อัตราดอกเบี้ยเปลี่ยนสภาพมาเป็นช่วงขาขึ้น และดูเหมือนว่าจะขี้นไปเรื่อยๆ อีกระยะหนึ่งอย่างนี้ ก็ย่อมจะมีทั้งผลประโยชน์ (สำหรับคนที่มีเงินเหลือ) และเป็นแรงกดดัน (สำหรับคนที่มีต้องกู้ยืม) ซึ่งต่างจากช่วงที่ผ่านมาที่อัตราดอกเบี้ยเป็นขาลงนับตั้งแต่วิกฤตเศรษฐกิจ และเพิ่งมาเริ่มเงยหัวขึ้นเร็วๆนี้ โดยเฉพาะช่วงนี้เป็นช่วงที่ต้องจับตาดูเป็นพิเศษ เพราะนักเศรษฐศาสตร์และผู้เชี่ยวชาญหลายคนก็ยังเชื่อว่า อัตราดอกเบี้ยของไทยยังคงจะต้องขึ้นต่อไปอีก เพราะสภาวะทางเศรษฐกิจของไทยที่ได้รับผลกระทบจากราคาน้ำมันที่เพิ่มสูงขึ้น ซี่งมีผลต่ออัตราเงินเฟ้อ ซึ่งต้องควบคุมภาวะเงินเฟ้อด้วยการขึ้นอัตราดอกเบี้ย นอกจากนี้ ภาวะดอกเบี้ยของเราก็ยังผูกพันกับการขึ้นดอกเบี้ยในสหรัฐอเมริกา และอัตราแลกเปลี่ยน ซึ่งในปัจจุบัน อัตราดอกเบี้ยของเรายังคงไล่ตามไม่ทัน เลยทำให้หลายคนเชื่อว่าอัตราดอกเบี้ยยังต้องขึ้นอีก สำหรับนักลงทุนอย่างเราๆท่านๆ ก็ย่อมจะต้องระวังและหาประโยชน์สูงสุดจากช่วงนี้ โดยศึกษาถึงผลกระทบที่อาจเกิดขึ้นในการลงทุนในประเภทต่างๆ ไม่ว่าจะเป็นการลงทุนใน หุ้น กองทุน และตราสารหนี้

ในประเภทแรก คือการลงทุนในหุ้น เมื่ออัตราดอกเบี้ยมีการปรับตัวสูงขึ้น ถ้าบริษัทที่เราถือหุ้นอยู่มีการกู้ยืม ก็จะมีต้นทุนทางการเงิน คือ ภาระดอกเบี้ยที่เพิ่มสูงขึ้น ก็จะมีผลให้กำไรลดน้อยลง ดังนั้น ในช่วงนี้ เราถึงได้เห็นบริษัทที่มีแผนการใช้เงินเพื่อการลงทุนหันมาระดมทุนด้วยการออกหุ้นกู้กันเต็มไปหมด เพราะทุกคนก็รู้ว่าอัตราดอกเบี้ยกำลังปรับตัวขึ้น ในเมื่อมีแผนใช้เงินที่แน่นอนก็ต้องรีบหาเงินที่มีต้นทุนที่ยังพอรับได้ ณ ขณะนี้ไว้ก่อนที่อัตราดอกเบี้ยจะขึ้นสูงกว่านี้ ก็ถือว่าเป็นการล๊อคต้นทุนเงินในระยะยาวไว้ก่อน ในทางกลับกัน บริษัทที่มีสถานะเงินสดเหลือ ไม่ต้องกู้หนี้ยืมสิน ก็จะได้รับประโยชน์ คือ รายได้ดอกเบี้ยรับ เพิ่มสูงขึ้นตามอัตราดอกเบี้ยที่ปรับเพิ่มขึ้นด้วย ดังนั้น ก่อนตัดสินใจซื้อหุ้นก็ลองไปดูถามโบรกเกอร์ว่าบริษัทไหนที่มีสถานะเป็น Net Cash Position ก็จะรับประโยชน์ในเรื่องนี้ ส่วนหุ้นกลุ่มสุดท้ายที่ต้องจับตาดูก็คือ กลุ่มสถาบันการเงิน เพราะหุ้นกลุ่มนี้ ถ้าสามารถบริหารต้นทุนทางการเงินได้ดี ล็อคต้นทุนเงินที่จะปล่อยกู้ไว้ได้ที่ระดับต่ำ (อัตราดอกเบี้ยเงินฝากที่ให้แก่ผู้ฝากเงิน) แล้วไปปล่อยกู้ตามอัตราดอกเบี้ยที่เพิ่มสูงขึ้น ก็จะสามารถได้กำไรจากส่วนต่างอัตราดอกเบี้ย (Interest rate spread) ที่กว้างขึ้นได้

นอกจากนี้ ในส่วนของผู้ลงทุนเอง พออัตราดอกเบี้ยขึ้น พวกนักเก็งกำไรที่กู้ยืมมาเล่นในบัญชีมาร์จิ้น ก็ย่อมจะมีต้นทุนที่สูงขึ้น หรือ นักลงทุนก็มีทางเลือกที่จะไปลงทุนประเภทอื่นที่มีความเสี่ยงต่ำกว่า แต่ก็ได้ผลตอบแทนดอกเบี้ยที่สูงขึ้น เพราะฉะนั้น ถ้าไม่คุ้มก็จะไม่ค่อยอยากเข้าไปลงทุน หรือตัดสินใจขายหุ้นออกไปเสีย แทนที่จะแบกต้นทุนดอกเบี้ย ตามทฤษฏี หุ้นก็เลยมักจะตก เมื่อดอกเบี้ยขยันขึ้นเหลือเกิน

ประเภทที่สอง สำหรับคุณๆ ที่ลงทุนในบรรดากองทุนต่างๆ ก็ย่อมจะได้รับผลกระทบในช่วงดอกเบี้ยขาขึ้นเหมือนกัน ถ้าเป็นกองทุนหุ้น ก็จะต้องดูเหมือนๆกับผลที่จะเกิดกับการลงทุนในหุ้นโดยตรง แต่ถ้าเป็นกองทุนที่มีการลงทุนในตราสารหนี้ หรือเงินฝากด้วย ไม่ว่าจะเป็นกองทุนแบบผสม หรือ กองทุนตราสารหนี้ หรือจำพวก Money Market ก็จะได้รับผลกระทบโดยตรงจากอัตราดอกเบี้ยที่ปรับตัวสูงขึ้น เพราะกลายเป็นว่า ตราสารหนี้ที่กองทุนถืออยู่อาจจะด้อยค่าลง ถ้าบริหารจัดการไม่ดี (เพราะดอกเบี้ยใหม่ในตลาดสูงกว่า ที่ระดับความเสี่ยงเท่าๆกัน) ซึ่งอาจมีผลให้ราคาตลาดที่ซื้อขายกันของตราสารหนี้ลดลง ตรงนี้ กองทุนซึ่งต้องคำนวณมูลค่าสินทรัพย์สุทธิ (Net Asset Value – NAV) ทุกวัน ก็ต้องมีการ Mark to market คือคิดมูลค่าของกองทุนตามราคาตลาด ซึ่งถ้าดอกเบี้ยขึ้นเยอะๆ แต่ในพอร์ตมีแต่ทรัพย์สินที่มีดอกเบี้ยเก่าที่ต่ำกว่า กองทุนก็จะต้อง Mark down คือต้องปรับลดลง เหมือนกับขาดทุนนั่นเอง

อย่างไรก็ตาม ทางบริษัทหลักทรัพย์จัดการกองทุนรวม ก็เข้าใจปัญหานี้ดี และเชื่อว่ามีผู้ลงทุนไม่น้อยที่ไม่ได้สนใจเรื่องราคาตลาด แต่อยากลงทุนเพราะอยากได้ผู้จัดการกองทุนช่วยเลือกลงทุนให้ได้อัตราดอกเบี้ยที่น่าพอใจ แล้วก็ถือไปจนครบอายุในลักษณะคล้ายๆกับการฝากเงินประจำ เพราะฉะนั้น ช่วงนี้ เราจึงได้เห็นกองทุนจำนวนพอสมควรที่ออกมาเป็นลักษณะกองทุนปิด คือไม่สนใจราคาตลาดที่เปลี่ยนแปลง เน้นแต่เพียงอัตราดอกเบี้ยที่ได้รับเท่านั้น ส่วนที่ว่ากองทุนนั้นจะไปลงทุนประเภทไหน ก็มีให้เลือกไม่ว่าจะเป็นเฉพาะพันธบัตรรัฐบาลให้เซฟสุดๆ หรือผสมกับหุ้นกู้ของบริษัท ฯลฯ นอกจากนี้ กองทุนเหล่านี้ก็จะเน้นการลงทุนในช่วงระยะเวลาที่ค่อนข้างสั้น คือ ประมาณหกเดือนถึงหนึ่งปี ทั้งนี้ก็เพื่อป้องกันความผันผวนของอัตราดอกเบี้ยนั่นเอง เพราะยิ่งระยะเวลาของตราสารหนี้ยิ่งสั้นก็มีความเสี่ยงน้อยลง เนื่องจากเราสามารถเปลี่ยนไปลงทุนใหม่ตามอัตราดอกเบี้ยที่เพิ่มขึ้นได้เร็วๆ หรือถ้าจะมองอีกมุมหนึ่ง ก็เหมือนกับว่าเราลอยตัวไปอัตราดอกเบี้ยแทนที่จะไปติดกับอัตราดอกเบี้ยเดิมเป็นเวลานานๆ

ในด้านการลงทุนประเภทที่สาม คือ การลงทุนในตราสารหนี้ จำพวกหุ้นกู้ พันธบัตร ตั๋วเงิน ฯลฯ เรื่องที่นักลงทุนมักจะให้ความสำคัญก็คือ ความเสี่ยงที่คนที่กู้เงินเราไปแล้วไม่มีปัญญาจ่ายดอกเบี้ย หรือเงินต้น คืนให้กับผู้ให้กู้ ซึ่งก็คือผู้ลงทุนนั่นเอง โดยเฉพาะในช่วงที่ดอกเบี้ยปรับตัวขึ้น ถ้าขึ้นไปมากๆ ท่านที่มีหุ้นกู้ของบริษัทที่มีเครดิตไม่ค่อยดี (ซึ่งเวลาออกหุ้นกู้ หรือขอเงินคนอื่นมาใช้ ก็จะต้องเสนอเงื่อนไขอัตราดอกเบี้ยที่สูงกว่าคนอื่น) ก็อาจจะหนาวๆร้อนๆ ว่าจะมีบริษัทจะมีเงินมาจ่ายภาระดอกเบี้ยหรือไม่ หรือเมื่อครบกำหนดจะมีเงินมาใช้หรือเปล่า

ถ้าเราไปดูเรื่องของผลตอบแทนในการลงทุนในตราสารหนี้ ก็จะเห็นได้ว่า ถึงแม้ว่าบริษัทยังอยู่ในสถานะที่มั่นคง แต่พออัตราดอกเบี้ยปรับตัวขึ้น ก็จะทำให้หุ้นกู้ที่เราถืออยู่มีคุณค่าน้อยลง เช่น ตอนที่เข้าไปซื้อหุ้นกู้เมื่อต้นปี ได้รับอัตราดอกเบี้ย 4% ต่อปี แต่ตอนนี้ ถ้าไปซื้อหุ้นกู้ที่ออกใหม่ อาจจะได้รับอัตราดอกเบี้ย 4.5% ต่อปี ซึ่งถ้าเกิดคุณเอาหุ้นกู้ที่มีอยู่ไปขายก่อนครบกำหนด คนซื้อก็ย่อมต้องการอัตราดอกเบี้ย 4.5% ซึ่งก็แปลว่าคุณต้องขายลดราคา หรือราคาหุ้นกู้จะปรับตัวลดลงนั่นเอง ตรงนี้ มีข้อยกเว้นนิดนึงนะครับว่า ถ้าคุณแฮปปี้กับอัตราดอกเบี้ยที่ได้รับในหุ้นกู้หรือพันธบัตรที่ลงทุนไปแล้วถือไว้จนครบกำหนด ก็ไม่มีอะไรเสียหาย ในเรื่องขาดทุนที่ว่า อย่างไรก็ตาม คุณอาจจะพลาดโอกาสในการไปลงทุนใหม่ๆที่ให้อัตราดอกเบี้ยที่สูงกว่าได้ (เรียกว่า Reinvestment หรือ Interest on Interest) ก็เหมือนๆกับ การไปฝากเงินประจำช่วงยาวๆแหละครับ พอผ่านไปช่วงหนึ่งปรากฎว่า ดอกเบี้ยเงินฝากช่วงสั้นๆ เกิดเพิ่มขี้นมาจนไล่ทัน หรือแซงไป ก็จะรู้สึกเสียดายและเสียใจที่ไม่สามารถย้ายเงินไปฝากในที่ที่ให้ผลตอบแทนที่ดีกว่า หรือไม่มีข้อบังคับให้ฝากเงินนานๆจนขาดความคล่องตัว เพราะฉะนั้น ได้ช่วงดอกเบี้ยขาขึ้นอย่างนี้ ก่อนลงทุนก็ควรจะมั่นใจว่าดอกเบี้ยที่ได้รับ ได้อัตราที่สูงมากๆจนของใหม่ไล่ไม่ทัน หรือที่ได้รับสบายใจแล้ว ไม่ว่าข่างนอกจะเปลี่ยนไปอย่างไร ก็สบายใจพอเพียงกับที่ได้รับอยู่และไม่มีปัญหาว่าอาจจะต้องขายก่อนครับกำหนด
Posted by kriengchai at 10:51 AM in Uncategorized

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Monday, July 9, 2007

Good Paid Career Directions

by Gary Lamphier, CanWest News - Ref :
Edmonton Journal


[Dale Daniels, a senior manager with Deloitte, came up with a list. Daniels heads Deloitte's
rewards and performance management practice for Western Canada. He tracks pay levels closely.]

The following 10 fields are currently showing the biggest gains in annual pay:
1. Engineering (all industries, including operations, drilling, service and mechanical)
2. Geologists (energy, mining)
3. Accountants (including controllers, financial analysts, regulatory compliance specialists,
and CFOs)
4. IT professionals
5. Human resources professionals (entry level to VP level)
6. Skilled tradespeople (welders, machinists, electricians)
7. Administrative staff (payables and receivables)
8. Marketing (including account managers)
9. Sales management (area managers, business development)
10. Quality control managers

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